ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Colts vs. ChiefsFriday, October 29, 2004
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Colts and Chiefs. Now they're back with a
second look.
Chiefs MLB Monty Beisel is filling in for the injured Mike Maslowski
and he has to be a target of the Colts' offense this week. The Colts
aren't getting RB Edgerrin James as involved as a receiver as they once
did, but this is a game that they could because of Beisel's lack of ideal
athleticism in the middle.
When the Chiefs use man-to-man coverage on early downs, look for QB Peyton
Manning to recognize it and attack Beisel with some "A-angle" type routes
that can isolate James on Beisel. When the Chiefs are in zone coverage,
look for the Colts to run a lot of underneath crossing routes in order to
get WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne into Beisel's zone. Furthermore,
don't be surprised to see a lot of square in routes from TEs Dallas Clark
and Marcus Pollard in order to create more mismatches against Beisel in
the passing game.
With the Chiefs lacking great depth at cornerback and with TE Clark not
playing up to par so far this season, look for the Colts to continue to
use more three-receiver sets than two-tight end sets. The primary benefit
of using the three-receiver look is to generate a mismatch between No. 3
WR Brandon Stokley and the opposing team's nickel cornerback. Once again,
Stokley can provide that favorable matchup for the Colts because he has
greater quickness and speed than Chiefs nickel DC Dexter McCleon, who lost
his starting job recently to William Bartee.
With the Chiefs likely to give their cornerbacks a lot of deep help from
safeties Greg Wesley and Jerome Woods against WRs Harrison and Wayne,
there should be a lot of room down the middle for Stokley to exploit his
mismatch. The other benefit of spreading the field with three receivers is
that the Chiefs won't be able to get Wesley as involved near the line of
scrimmage as they like, which will open up for James and the Colts'
running attack.
When the Chiefs do take some chances with Wesley cheated up on first and
second down as an extra defender in the box, look for Manning to target
the matchup between Wayne and Bartee. Harrison is likely to receive the
extra attention on the opposite side, which means Wayne will have more
room to operate, as usual. So far this season, Wayne has been able to burn
opponents for not respecting him, as he is tied for sixth in the NFL with
eight receptions of 20 or more yards. Bartee played well in his first
start against the Falcons last week, but he still lacks ideal fluidity in
his hips and always has been a target on the deep ball. Wayne doesn't have
elite speed but he's proven to be fast enough to exploit stiffer
cornerbacks when left alone in man-coverage.
Just as Beisel will be a target for the Colts' passing attack, so
too will Colts MLB Rob Morris for the Chiefs' offense. In fact, while
Morris is a regular starter, he lacks just as much athleticism as Beisel
and RB Priest Holmes is more of a threat to expose Morris than James is to
expose Beisel. On top of the passing game, also look for the Chiefs to
exploit this mismatch by using a lot of zone or stretch running plays that
will set up the cutback run for Holmes. By doing so it can help to catch
Morris overpursuing to the outside, which in turn will leave an even
bigger gap for Holmes to cut back through because Morris lacks the
change-of-direction skills and speed to recover.
Tackling after the catch has been a major problem for the Colts' back
seven this season and it has to be a major source of concern heading into
Sunday's matchup versus the Chiefs' offense. The Chiefs don't have much of
a vertical presence at wide receiver, but Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton
and especially Dante Hall do a good job of getting upfield and making
things happen after the catch.
Even more of a concern is Holmes, who often catches the ball two or three
yards downfield and does most of his work after the catch. The Colts'
cover-2 scheme will give up a lot of underneath receptions but it is
predicated on wrapping up immediately after the catch in order to prevent
the big play and to force the opponent to drive the length of the field
without making a mistake. If they don't do a better job of tackling in the
open field this week it's going to put a lot of pressure on Manning and
the offense.
Special Teams
The Colts have a big advantage in the kicking game. Chiefs PT Steve Cheek
has been inconsistent at best and PK Lawrence Tynes is very average in
terms of his leg strength and overall accuracy. Neither player is in the
same vicinity of Colts PK Mike Vanderjagt and PT Hunter Smith when it
comes to talent and experience. Vanderjagt is 5-for-6 on field goal
attempts this season while Smith is averaging 46.9 yards per punt, which
is good for second best in the NFL.
The Chiefs do even out the special teams score with Dante Hall in the
return game, but the Colts still get the overall edge. Hall has not been
nearly as explosive this season, which might have something to do with his
increased role on offense. The Colts' return game was a disaster with
Jason David returning punts and Dominic Rhodes returning kickoffs, but the
team is expecting primary return specialist Brad Pyatt back this week from
his ankle sprain. Furthermore, Smith's ability to directional punt should
help to keep Hall in check in this game.
Prediction: Colts 30, Chiefs 27
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Colts and Chiefs. Now they're back with a
second look.
Chiefs MLB Monty Beisel is filling in for the injured Mike Maslowski
and he has to be a target of the Colts' offense this week. The Colts
aren't getting RB Edgerrin James as involved as a receiver as they once
did, but this is a game that they could because of Beisel's lack of ideal
athleticism in the middle.
When the Chiefs use man-to-man coverage on early downs, look for QB Peyton
Manning to recognize it and attack Beisel with some "A-angle" type routes
that can isolate James on Beisel. When the Chiefs are in zone coverage,
look for the Colts to run a lot of underneath crossing routes in order to
get WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne into Beisel's zone. Furthermore,
don't be surprised to see a lot of square in routes from TEs Dallas Clark
and Marcus Pollard in order to create more mismatches against Beisel in
the passing game.
With the Chiefs lacking great depth at cornerback and with TE Clark not
playing up to par so far this season, look for the Colts to continue to
use more three-receiver sets than two-tight end sets. The primary benefit
of using the three-receiver look is to generate a mismatch between No. 3
WR Brandon Stokley and the opposing team's nickel cornerback. Once again,
Stokley can provide that favorable matchup for the Colts because he has
greater quickness and speed than Chiefs nickel DC Dexter McCleon, who lost
his starting job recently to William Bartee.
With the Chiefs likely to give their cornerbacks a lot of deep help from
safeties Greg Wesley and Jerome Woods against WRs Harrison and Wayne,
there should be a lot of room down the middle for Stokley to exploit his
mismatch. The other benefit of spreading the field with three receivers is
that the Chiefs won't be able to get Wesley as involved near the line of
scrimmage as they like, which will open up for James and the Colts'
running attack.
When the Chiefs do take some chances with Wesley cheated up on first and
second down as an extra defender in the box, look for Manning to target
the matchup between Wayne and Bartee. Harrison is likely to receive the
extra attention on the opposite side, which means Wayne will have more
room to operate, as usual. So far this season, Wayne has been able to burn
opponents for not respecting him, as he is tied for sixth in the NFL with
eight receptions of 20 or more yards. Bartee played well in his first
start against the Falcons last week, but he still lacks ideal fluidity in
his hips and always has been a target on the deep ball. Wayne doesn't have
elite speed but he's proven to be fast enough to exploit stiffer
cornerbacks when left alone in man-coverage.
Just as Beisel will be a target for the Colts' passing attack, so
too will Colts MLB Rob Morris for the Chiefs' offense. In fact, while
Morris is a regular starter, he lacks just as much athleticism as Beisel
and RB Priest Holmes is more of a threat to expose Morris than James is to
expose Beisel. On top of the passing game, also look for the Chiefs to
exploit this mismatch by using a lot of zone or stretch running plays that
will set up the cutback run for Holmes. By doing so it can help to catch
Morris overpursuing to the outside, which in turn will leave an even
bigger gap for Holmes to cut back through because Morris lacks the
change-of-direction skills and speed to recover.
Tackling after the catch has been a major problem for the Colts' back
seven this season and it has to be a major source of concern heading into
Sunday's matchup versus the Chiefs' offense. The Chiefs don't have much of
a vertical presence at wide receiver, but Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton
and especially Dante Hall do a good job of getting upfield and making
things happen after the catch.
Even more of a concern is Holmes, who often catches the ball two or three
yards downfield and does most of his work after the catch. The Colts'
cover-2 scheme will give up a lot of underneath receptions but it is
predicated on wrapping up immediately after the catch in order to prevent
the big play and to force the opponent to drive the length of the field
without making a mistake. If they don't do a better job of tackling in the
open field this week it's going to put a lot of pressure on Manning and
the offense.
Special Teams
The Colts have a big advantage in the kicking game. Chiefs PT Steve Cheek
has been inconsistent at best and PK Lawrence Tynes is very average in
terms of his leg strength and overall accuracy. Neither player is in the
same vicinity of Colts PK Mike Vanderjagt and PT Hunter Smith when it
comes to talent and experience. Vanderjagt is 5-for-6 on field goal
attempts this season while Smith is averaging 46.9 yards per punt, which
is good for second best in the NFL.
The Chiefs do even out the special teams score with Dante Hall in the
return game, but the Colts still get the overall edge. Hall has not been
nearly as explosive this season, which might have something to do with his
increased role on offense. The Colts' return game was a disaster with
Jason David returning punts and Dominic Rhodes returning kickoffs, but the
team is expecting primary return specialist Brad Pyatt back this week from
his ankle sprain. Furthermore, Smith's ability to directional punt should
help to keep Hall in check in this game.
Prediction: Colts 30, Chiefs 27
